← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 31% | 29% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Víctor García · CD Nacional |
| 31' | ⚽ | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ousmane Drame · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Daniel Podence · Moreirense FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 72' | 🟥 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 75' | 🟨 | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 84' | ⚽ | Daniel Podence · Moreirense FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Ramirez · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Salvador Agra · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 8.00 | 1525.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| elo | 1442.88 | 1497.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.51 | -14.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 46.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.88 | 3.44 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |