← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 36% | 34% | 2.69 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 33% | 31% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.14 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 18' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 22' | 🟨 | Flávio Ramos · Feirense |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nelsinho · FC Arouca |
| 66' | ⚽ | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Icaro · Feirense |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 278.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.38 | 2.32 |
| elo | 1408.07 | 1520.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.25 | 11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |