← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Mendes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 36% | 27% | 2.69 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 32% | 43% | 3.04 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Bruno Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 61' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 74' | ⚽ | Abel Camará · Belenenses |
| 81' | ⚽ | Konstantin Bazelyuk · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1617.00 | 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| elo | 1551.67 | 1504.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.12 | -3.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.44 | 62.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |