← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge de Sousa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 54% | 51% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 18% | 23% | 5.27 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 11' | 🟨 | Pica · CD Tondela |
| 28' | ⚽ | Yazalde · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fernando Ferreira · CD Tondela |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Wagner · CD Tondela |
| 82' | 🟨 | José Correia · CD Tondela |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alhassan Wakaso · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruno Monteiro · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ | Filipe Augusto · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.29 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1616.00 | 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | — |
| elo | 1537.31 | 1458.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.00 | 10.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 54.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.44 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |