← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 73% | 1.44 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.79 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 12% | 11% | 8.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Gevorg Ghazaryan · Maritimo |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nélson Semedo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 34' | 🟨 | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Raúl Silva · Maritimo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Maurício Antônio · Maritimo |
| 86' | 🟨 | André Carrillo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fransérgio · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Soares · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eduardo Gottardi · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 642.00 | 550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.84 |
| elo | 1484.41 | 1943.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.13 | 6.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.25 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| league points | 14.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 2.64 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.21 |
| state index | 0.10 | 2.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |