← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 87% | 1.21 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 13% | 8% | 7.40 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 4% | 15.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 33' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nildo Petrolina · Moreirense FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ljubomir Fejsa · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jander · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 545.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| elo | 1941.98 | 1444.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.19 | -19.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.78 | 49.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.78 | 4.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.72 | — |
| state index | 1.97 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |