← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -4' | 🟨 | Welthon · Pacos Ferreira |
| 6' | ⚽ | Jorginho · FC Arouca |
| 24' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jubal · FC Arouca |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 1.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | — |
| elo | 1512.01 | 1534.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.24 | -9.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |