← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Borlido Matos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 49% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.55 | value: +12% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 24% | 28% | 4.10 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (og) | Ali Ghazal · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ailton · GD Estoril Praia |
| 50' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakhite · GD Estoril Praia |
| 52' | 🟨 | Joel · GD Estoril Praia |
| 79' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1517.00 | 1609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 0.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| elo | 1508.22 | 1540.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.78 | 2.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.88 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.30 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |