← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.22 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 25% | 25% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Braga · Chaves |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 48' | 🟥 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 52' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Deyvison · Maritimo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 148.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| elo | 1520.72 | 1481.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.99 | 28.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.56 | 62.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.89 | 3.71 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |