← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 39% | 42% | 2.48 | value: +5% |
| Maritimo win | 31% | 26% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 19' | ⚽ | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Erdem Şen · Maritimo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eduardo Gottardi · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 616.00 | 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.22 |
| elo | 1468.14 | 1654.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.90 | 11.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.17 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.22 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.17 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |