← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 50% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Boavista win | 21% | 21% | 4.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gil Dias · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alhassan Wakaso · Rio Ave FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 74' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ronan · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Heldon · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kamran Ağayev · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipe Sampaio · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1588.00 | 1496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1541.18 | 1475.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.78 | -1.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.33 | 57.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.63 | 3.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |