← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 39% | 41% | 2.52 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Chaves win | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Marco Baixinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 48' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 55' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Battaglia · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Battaglia · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pedrinho · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 493.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1536.52 | 1518.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.62 | 10.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.33 | 55.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.33 | 4.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | — |