← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 37% | 35% | 2.65 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 35% | 3.04 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Paulo Monteiro · Feirense |
| 14' | ⚽ | Fábio Sturgeon · Belenenses |
| 37' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 51' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 59' | 🟨 | João Palhinha · Belenenses |
| 86' | 🟨 | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mica Pinto · Belenenses |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joel Pereira · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| elo | 1423.99 | 1488.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.03 | -18.55 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 60.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | — |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.96 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |