← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Matheus Indio · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
| 73' | ⚽ | Gustavo Tocantins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gustavo Tocantins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 87' | 🟥 | Crislan · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1588.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| elo | 1531.47 | 1455.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.26 | 1.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 52.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |