← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Oct 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Feirense win | 22% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Leandro Freire · Chaves |
| 19' | 🟨 | Fábio Martins · Chaves |
| 23' | 🟨 | Cris · Feirense |
| 36' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Feirense |
| 42' | 🟨 | Paulo Monteiro · Feirense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Anastasios Karamanos · Feirense |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luís Aurélio · Feirense |
| 67' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 71' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Battaglia · Chaves |
| 83' | 🟨 | Icaro · Feirense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Chaves |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1522.90 | 1419.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.16 | 2.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.86 | 56.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | -2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.93 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |