← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Helder Malheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 37% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +17% |
| Maritimo win | 33% | 27% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Patrick · Maritimo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 82' | 🟨 | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Walter González · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 487.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1507.91 | 1475.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.32 | 0.75 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.22 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |