← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 36% | 45% | 2.73 | value: +23% |
| Moreirense FC win | 33% | 27% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Heldon · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Roberto · Moreirense FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Roderick Miranda · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Diego Galo · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Roderick Miranda · Rio Ave FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · Moreirense FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Heldon · Rio Ave FC |
| 78' | 🟥 | Heldon · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Andre Micael · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roderick Miranda · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Roderick Miranda · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 967.00 | 1575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas |
| 1.00 |
| 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.60 |
| elo | 1442.27 | 1562.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.30 | 17.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 55.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.09 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |