← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Mota da Silva, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 85% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.67 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 5% | 5% | 18.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · FC Arouca |
| 43' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 78' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 143.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| elo | 1822.58 | 1511.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.10 | -27.07 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 0.71 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.51 | — |
| state index | 1.46 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |