← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 41% | 46% | 2.36 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 29% | 24% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Tiago Rodrigues · CD Nacional |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Pacos Ferreira |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
| 65' | 🟨 | Washington · CD Nacional |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ricardo Valente · Pacos Ferreira |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rui Correia · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 478.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.80 |
| elo | 1541.51 | 1504.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.49 | 2.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 45.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.50 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.50 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.14 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |