← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Vasco Santos, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 49% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Boavista win | 22% | 23% | 4.44 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Dyego Sousa · Maritimo |
| 44' | 🟨 | Renato Santos · Boavista |
| 51' | ⚽ | Carraça · Boavista |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kamran Ağayev · Boavista |
| 80' | 🟨 | Digas · Boavista |
| 82' | 🟨 | Patrick · Maritimo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 600.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 1.00 |
| 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.80 |
| elo | 1477.34 | 1474.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.98 | -12.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 60.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.75 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.50 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |