← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 40% | 41% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.97 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Fábio Espinho · Boavista |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lucas Tagliapietra · Boavista |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marcelo Oliveira · Moreirense FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · Moreirense FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Talocha · Boavista |
| 77' | 🟨 | Iuri Medeiros · Boavista |
| 83' | ⚽ | Idris Mandiang · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cauê · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1462.00 | 946.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa |
| 3.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | — |
| elo | 1461.96 | 1454.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.51 | -15.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.67 | 48.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 78.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 59.25 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.25 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |