← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Miguel Rodrigues Ferreira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 81% | 80% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 15% | 7.40 | value: +12% |
| Feirense win | 6% | 4% | 17.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Luís Aurélio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ricardo Dias · Feirense |
| 61' | ⚽ | Eduardo Salvio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 70' | ⚽ | Franco Cervi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Monteiro · Feirense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Semedo · Feirense |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alejandro Grimaldo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 489.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| elo | 1937.25 | 1422.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.96 | -19.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 57.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -1.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.06 | — |
| state index | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |