← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hugo Miguel, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 42% | 44% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Nuno Valente · FC Arouca |
| 23' | 🟨 | Djavan · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 28' | 🟨 | Thiago Carleto · FC Arouca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Lazar Rosić · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 48' | ⚽ | Pedro Santos · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matheus · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 85' | ⚽ | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 459.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.00 |
| 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | — |
| elo | 1509.54 | 1642.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.42 | -14.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.67 | 68.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.29 | 4.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |