← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +6% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 19% | 19% | 5.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Matheus Indio · GD Estoril Praia |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mattheus · GD Estoril Praia |
| 25' | ⚽ | Filip Krovinović · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Diogo Amado · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' | 🟨 | Alhassan Wakaso · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Rio Ave FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1553.00 | 1553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio dos Arcos |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| elo | 1575.30 | 1535.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.57 | -6.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.14 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |