← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joao Capela
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 38% | 34% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Gleison · Pacos Ferreira |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bruno Santos · Pacos Ferreira |
| 30' | 🟥 | Mamadu Cande · CD Tondela |
| 42' | ⚽ | Erick Moreno · CD Tondela |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · Pacos Ferreira |
| 45' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 65' | 🟨 | João Góis · Pacos Ferreira |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 74' | ⚽ | Miguel Vieira · Pacos Ferreira |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
| 86' | 🟨 | Hélder Tavares · CD Tondela |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 304.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| 3.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | — |
| elo | 1448.02 | 1552.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.14 | 9.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.33 | 57.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 73.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 43.67 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.67 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.33 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |