← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Mon, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 46% | 41% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.31 | value: +8% |
| FC Arouca win | 24% | 26% | 4.01 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Abel Camará · Belenenses |
| 28' | 🟨 | Adilson Goiano · FC Arouca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · FC Arouca |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kuca · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vítor Gomes · Belenenses |
| 80' | 🟨 | Oriol Rosell · Belenenses |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Restelo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 4.40 |
| elo | 1529.89 | 1543.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.03 | -10.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 56.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.33 | 72.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.67 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.67 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |