← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Godinho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 37% | 31% | 2.64 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.17 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Mateus Silva · Pacos Ferreira |
| 19' | ⚽ | Barnes Osei · Pacos Ferreira |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ricardo · Pacos Ferreira |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alhassan Wakaso · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mário Felgueiras · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 452.00 | 1547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Capital do Móvel |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.60 |
| elo | 1562.81 | 1603.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.45 | 37.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 54.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.82 |
| league points | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 73.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.50 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.30 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |