← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rui Oliveira, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 47% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +6% |
| CD Tondela win | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Éber Bessa · Maritimo |
| 37' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kaká · CD Tondela |
| 38' | 🟥 | Claude Gonçalves · CD Tondela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jailson · CD Tondela |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dyego Sousa · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jhon Murillo · CD Tondela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rafael Amorim · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 574.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Marítimo |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.53 | 1460.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.36 | -14.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.67 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.67 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.82 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |