← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 42% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 28% | 32% | 3.47 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Luís Rocha · Feirense |
| 23' | 🟨 | César Martins · CD Nacional |
| 29' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · CD Nacional |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tiago Rodrigues · CD Nacional |
| 51' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nuno Sequeira · CD Nacional |
| 55' | ⚽ | Okacha Hamzaoui · CD Nacional |
| 62' | 🟨 | Vitor Bruno · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Higor Platiny · Feirense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Víctor García · CD Nacional |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nelson Bonilla · CD Nacional |
| 77' | 🟥 | Nelson Bonilla · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 207.00 | 1454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio Marcolino de Castro |
| 2.00 |
| 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| elo | 1440.10 | 1494.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.36 | -23.22 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.46 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |