← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 86% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.25 | fair |
| Boavista win | 6% | 5% | 16.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 19' | ⚽ | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nuno Henrique · Boavista |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | André Silva · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Tiago Mesquita · Boavista |
| 84' | 🟨 | Yacine Brahimi · FC Porto |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alex Telles · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 114.00 | 1453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d |
| venue | Estádio do Dragão |
| 2.00 |
| 2.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.40 |
| elo | 1812.53 | 1464.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.65 | -3.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.67 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.92 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.67 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.33 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.67 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |