← Primeira Liga 2016-17 · Fri, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 65% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.37 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 13% | 13% | 7.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -4' | 🟥 | Gegé · FC Arouca |
| 16' | ⚽ | Nélson Semedo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rafael Crivellaro · FC Arouca |
| 37' | 🟨 | Andre Santos · FC Arouca |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lisandro López · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 56' | ⚽ | Walter González · FC Arouca |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jardel · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pizzi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gegé · FC Arouca |
| 73' | 🟨 | Zequinha · FC Arouca |
| 78' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lisandro López · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nuno Coelho · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Artur Moreira · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 436.00 | 466.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 1522.23 |
| 1927.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.75 | 2.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.50 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.75 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.92 |
| state index | -0.52 | 1.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |