← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 89% | 89% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 8% | 11.71 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 3% | 2% | 31.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 349.00 | 1322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1928.29 | 1519.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.65 | -18.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| league points | 85.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.15 |
| state index | 1.80 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |