← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniao Madeira win | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +5% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 37% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.37 | 1541.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.19 | 2.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |