← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 65% | 62% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.72 | value: +7% |
| Academica win | 14% | 16% | 6.98 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 165.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.66 | 1411.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.76 | -6.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |