← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 41% | 47% | 2.38 | value: +11% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.76 | 1545.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.88 | 26.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.45 |
| state index | -1.63 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |