← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 47% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 27% | 31% | 3.64 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 165.00 | 1413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.71 | 1575.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.76 | -6.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |