← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 38% | 44% | 2.56 | value: +13% |
| Vitória SC win | 34% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 318.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1571.43 | 1531.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.67 | -19.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |