← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 49% | 43% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 31% | 4.21 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 799.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1519.32 | 1472.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.66 | 5.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.03 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |