← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 47% | 2.69 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 36% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Uniao Madeira win | 28% | 21% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Uniao Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1315.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.31 | 1452.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.09 | -11.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |