← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 87% | 90% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 11.06 | fair |
| Setubal win | 4% | 3% | 21.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1885.49 | 1439.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.00 | -24.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| league points | 80.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.91 |
| state index | 1.88 | -1.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |