← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Academica win | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1406.92 | 1656.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.35 | -15.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.78 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |