← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniao Madeira win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.14 | fair |
| Academica win | 31% | 35% | 3.19 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1440.85 | 1418.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.57 | -19.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.77 |
| state index | -1.32 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |