← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 34% | 34% | 2.86 | fair |
| Boavista win | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 32% | 34% | 3.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 792.00 | 1308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1474.25 | 1461.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.42 | 8.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 32.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |