← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 49% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 24% | 23% | 4.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1400.00 | 427.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1571.22 | 1498.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.43 | 11.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |