← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 41% | 41% | 2.39 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 30% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 151.00 | 1399.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.76 | 1550.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.53 | 28.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 23.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |