← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 26% | 27% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.00 | 1424.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.84 | 23.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |