← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 64% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.34 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 14% | 15% | 6.98 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1393.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1553.48 | 1920.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.67 | 11.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.65 |
| league points | 46.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.53 |
| state index | 0.43 | 1.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |