← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 37% | 39% | 2.62 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 32% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.91 | 1570.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.21 | 5.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 35.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |