← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 64% | 70% | 1.52 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.62 | fair |
| Academica win | 15% | 15% | 6.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1420.98 | 1814.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.09 | -25.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 24.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.13 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |