← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 68% | 73% | 1.43 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.88 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 12% | 8% | 8.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 292.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1659.24 | 1430.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.99 | 20.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.69 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |